Rosenblatt Securities & Jun Zhang, who was perhaps the leading skeptic of the iPhone X and held on to that bearish outlook, even though it was clear that the 2017 phone was a hit, he weighs again on iPhone XS and XS Max, with the same yield.
A new note from Zhang, released on Monday, called iPhone XS opening weekend sale & # 39; weak & # 39 ;, while those of the larger iPhone XS Max were stronger. Zhang continues to rate Apple's stock as too high, and maintains a target of $ 200 that is well below the shares of the past two months.
"Our channel checks indicate that the sales figures for iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max are higher than the weekend sales of the iPhone X", Zhang writes. "We believe that this is mainly due to better production of the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, but our research suggests that the pipeline of the XS order of the iPhone is very weak, resulting in a residual inventory of the iPhone XS. The sales of XS and iPhone XS Max will be lower than the total sales of iPhone X over a period of two months. "
"All in all, we believe the weekend outlet in the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max was weak," continued Zhang. "Based on retail sales and our production estimate, we estimate that a total of 7 million copies were sold during the weekend." Our research suggests that the iPhone XS max was sold out during the weekend, while the iPhone XS still had some stock left over. had several sales channels in the weekend We believe that the sale of iPhone XS Max was about 4-5x iPhone XS sales over the weekend. "
Zhang also predicted a production cut of the iPhone for the second half of this year, from 15 million units to 10 million units.
However, if AppleInsiderDaniel Eran Dilger showed last week that Zhang and his channelchecks in the recent past were often very wrong about the iPhone question, especially about the iPhone X. He was also one of the many analysts who had unfounded skepticism about the performance of that model was regularly tinkered in the financial and technical press last year. And Zhang's argument – that waiting times for pre-orders are an accurate measure of total demand – is a defective one.
Zhang had stated before the release of the new iPhones that preorders were "weaker" than those of the iPhone X in 2017. The iPhone X, despite the higher price level, continued to outsource all other iPhone models in every quarter since his release.