UBS raises Apple’s revenue estimates for Q1 2021 on iPhone 12, Mac strength

Investment bank UBS raised Apple’s December quarter estimates, citing better-than-expected iPhone shipments, average selling prices and Mac sales.

In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, UBS analyst David Vogt increased his estimate of Apple’s revenue for the first quarter of 2021 to $ 106.9 billion, from $ 98.9 billion. It also raised its earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $ 1.45, from $ 1.35.

The analyst expects December iPhone shipments to come in at around 78.5 million, about 5 million shipments better than his previous forecast of 73.5 million. This number is also higher than December quarter shipments in 2016 and follows three consecutive years of first quarter declines.

These shipping numbers are associated with a higher than expected average selling price (ASP) due to a consumer penchant for the iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max.

Vogt expects Apple to have posted iPhone revenue of $ 63.8 billion during the quarter, well above its previous forecast of $ 58 billion and above the Wall Street consensus of around $ 59 billion.

The analyst also believes that Mac shipments could reach around 6.9 million units, a sequential increase of 3%. These numbers could bring the Mac’s revenue to around $ 9.5 billion, 10% more than consensus.

Additionally, UBS is modeling Apple iPhone shipments totaling 215 million units in 2021. This would represent 13.5% year-over-year growth after shipments of around 190 million in 2020.

The higher ASP of $ 812.50 is also based on data indicating that Apple’s iPhone 12 Pro models made up about 37.5% of the units shipped in the December quarter. That’s more than 30% of top-tier iPhone 11 units in 2020. It believes iPhone 12 units will account for approximately 75% of all iPhone models shipped during the holiday quarter.

Vogt maintains its price target of $ 115, based on a 27x multiple on its 2022 earnings per share estimate of $ 4.23.


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